Service Plays Monday 09/21/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL DUNKEL

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

Game 235-236: Indianapolis at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.704; Miami 133.365
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 2

Monday, September 21

INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 0) at MIAMI (0 - 1) - 9/21/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 2

Monday, 9/21/2009

INDIANAPOLIS at MIAMI, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
INDIANAPOLIS: 8-1 ATS off SU win/ATS loss
MIAMI: 0-9 ATS at home off an Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL WRITE-UP

NFL Week 2 games

Monday, September 21

Colts (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1)-- Miami is just 3-12 vs spread at home the last two years; they had four turnovers last week in 19-7 loss at Atlanta-- defense held Falcons to 68 rushing yards, but lost field position by 25 yards. Fish are 8-12-2 vs spread as underdog of three or less points since '05. Colts are 7-4-1 vs spread as favorite of three or less points since '03; they're 14-7-1 as a road favorite in non-divisional games since '01. Indy outgained Jax 365-228 in 14-12 win last week, holding Garrard to 3.9 yds/pass attempt; they converted 8-14 on 3rd down, but turned ball over twice on nine drives. Indy won 16 of its last 20 prtimetime games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL ADDITIONAL

Week 2

Trend Report

Monday, September 21

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. MIAMI
Indianapolis is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

NFL

Indianapolis (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Miami (0-1 SU and ATS)

The Dolphins look to bounce back from a mistake-filled season-opening loss at Atlanta when they welcome Peyton Manning and the Colts to Land Shark Stadium.

Indianapolis held off the Jaguars 14-12 in new coach Jim Caldwell’s debut, but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. Manning (28-for-39, 294 yards, one TD, one INT) had a typical solid outing, but the Colts managed just 71 rushing yards on 31 carries. On the bright side, the Indy defense limited the Jags to 228 total yards (114 rushing, 114 passing).

The Colts lost starting WR Anthony Gonzalez to a knee injury against Jacksonville and he’ll miss several weeks. Also, defensive leader Bob Sanders, who didn’t play last week, has been ruled out again for this contest.

Miami committed four turnovers, including three lost fumbles, which led to 10 Falcons points in last week’s 19-7 loss as a four-point road underdog. The Dolphins trailed 19-0 before getting a garbage fourth-quarter touchdown pass from Chad Pennington (21-for-29 for 176 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) to Ricky Williams with 3:29 to play. The Miami offense produced just 259 total yards, but the defense stuffed RB Michael Turner and the Falcons ground attack, allowing just 68 rushing yards on 27 carries.

These teams last met on New Year’s Eve 2006, when the Colts edged the Dolphins 27-22, but failed to cash as a nine-point home favorite. Although Indy has won the last two in this series, Miami is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS six meetings this decade. Also, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head clashes and the visitor is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.

The Colts have cashed in five of their last six on Monday Night Football, and they’re 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 when laying three points or less on the road. Conversely, Indianapolis is in ATS funks of 2-6-1 overall as a favorite and 2-5 in September.

Miami carries nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-7 overall, 6-17 at home since 2006 (2-7 last year), 1-8-2 in September, 1-4 as a home ‘dog, 1-7-1 when catching three points or less in South Beach and 1-8-2 in September. The Fish have also failed to cover in Week 2 each of the last four years.

For Indianapolis, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall, 10-4 in September, 6-1 in AFC play and 5-2 in Week 2 action. Also, the Dolphins carry “under” streaks of 6-1 overall dating to last season, 8-2 at home, 10-2 in Week 2, 6-2 against the AFC and 4-0 as an underdog. However, the over is 11-5 in Miami’s last 16 Monday night appearances, and four of the last five Colts-Dolphins battles have topped the total.

Finally, the underdog cashed in both Monday night games in Week 1, and both soared over the total. Going back to the start of last season, the over is 13-4-1 in Monday Night Football.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (95-55) at L.A. Angels (89-60)

American League division leaders square off as the Yankees continue their West Coast road trip with veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (13-6, 4.14 ERA) going up against the Angels and southpaw Joe Saunders (13-7, 4.75) at Angel Stadium in Anaheim.

New York lost two of three in Seattle over the weekend, falling 7-1 Sunday. Even with the loss, Joe Girardi’s squad is 16-7 in its last 23 on the road, including 7-1 on the road against left-handed starters. The Yankees are on further runs of 57-23 overall, 4-0 on Mondays, 20-9 in series openers and 35-16 against teams with winning records. New York leads the A.L. East by five games over Boston.

Los Angeles clubbed the Rangers 10-5 on Sunday to take two of three from their nearest rival in the A.L. West standings and open a 7½-game lead over the Rangers. The Angels return home with a 6-1 mark in their last seven in Anaheim, and they’re on further positive runs of 5-2 in series openers, 5-0 at home against winning teams and 39-19 against southpaw starters.

These teams met a week ago for a single makeup game in New York with the Yankees getting a 5-3 victory, ending L.A.’s four-game winning streak in this rivalry. However, in California, the Angels have won 19 of the last 26 meetings, and they’re 4-1 the last five times they’ve faced Pettitte.

Pettitte has been tough on the road, going 8-2 with a 3.52 ERA, and he is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in his last three starts overall. New York has won seven of his last eight outings, with the lone loss coming on Sept. 11 versus the Orioles, when Pettitte allowed three runs on five hits in five innings of a 10-4 defeat. With the veteran on the hill, the Yankees are on positive streaks of 5-0 on the road, 18-6 on Mondays and 8-2 when he opens a series.

In two starts against the Angels this season, Pettitte has allowed a combined 11 runs on 16 hits in 10 innings with the teams splitting the two games, and he’s 12-9 with a 4.70 ERA in 27 career regular-season starts against Los Angeles.

Saunders is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three outings. On Tuesday, he gave up five runs, but just two earned, in a 9-8 loss in Boston, snapping the Angels’ four-game winning streak behind the lefty. With Saunders pitching, the Angels are on streaks of 41-19 overall, 7-2 at home, 27-13 against winning teams, 9-3 against the A.L. East and 24-8 in series openers.

Saunders has an ugly 7.97 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees, but Los Angeles has taken three of those contests. That includes a 10-6 home win July 10, when Saunders gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings.

The Yankees have stayed below the total in 50 of Pettitte’s last 76 starts overall, 22 of 31 when he’s on the road and eight of his last 11 against A.L. West foes, while as a team, the Yankees have stayed under the mark in five of six against winning teams and five of six on Mondays.

With Saunders pitching, the Angels are on “over” runs of 16-5 overall, 7-2 at home, 18-7-1 against the A.L. East and 3-1 when he faces New York, but as a team, the Angels are on “under” streaks of 19-7-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home, 5-0 in series openers and 6-1 at home against left-handers. Finally, in this series, the “over” is on runs of 21-8 overall and 13-3 in California.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Dolphins

 

[SteveMasters]

Bob Valentino 30 DIME Monday Night Football winner ... 30 DIME: Colts-Dolphins UNDER the total

NOTE: Keep an eye on this number, which is at 42 across the board as I publish this. However, 90 percent of the time, the public hammers the "over" on Monday Night Football, so it might be wise to wait and make your wager late to get the best of the number. But if you see it start to drop below 42, immediately find a place that still has 42 and grab it!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ben burns

10* under colts

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

honestdogsports

NFL Miami +3 rating 4.7

MLB Boston RL -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Seahawks and Browns Sunday.

Today it's the Dolphins. The surplus is 1,175 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

The turnover machine known as Tony Romo cost Hondo a win last night, directing the Cowboys to a defeat that put the IOUs at a big fat 1,515 perrys.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will try a two-sport tango with the Colts and Giants -- 10 units apiece.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB DUNKEL

Boston at Kansas City
The Royals look to build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

Game 951-952: San Diego at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Leblanc) 14.029; Pittsburgh (McCutchen) 14.756
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over

Game 953-954: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.574; NY Mets (Misch) 15.069
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+150); Under

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 15.865; Milwaukee (Looper) 15.547
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); Over

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 13.651; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.638
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-140); Over

Game 959-960: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.267; Arizona (Davis) 14.040
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under


Game 961-962: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.185; Toronto (Purcey) 15.342
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Over

Game 963-964: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.455; White Sox (Hudson) 15.445
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Over

Game 965-966: Boston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 16.182; Kansas City (Dinardo) 16.828
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.526; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.983
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Under

Game 969-970: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 14.004; Oakland (Gonzalez) 17.080
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA DUNKEL

San Antonio at Phoenix
The Mercury look to take advantage of a San Antonio team that is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Phoenix is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

Game 623-624: San Antonio at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 108.214; Phoenix 120.885
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA LONG SHEET


Monday, September 21

SAN ANTONIO (16 - 20) at PHOENIX (24 - 12) - 9/21/2009, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 7-7 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 8-7 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

324 - 221 run 59 % on free selections

Mon Houston Astros -145

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe wiz Bonus Play

sf giants

 

[brewerfan003]

Randall the Handle




Baltimore +1.20 over TORONTO PINNACLE
Both these squads are laboring down the stretch but the Orioles remain the more enthusiastic bunch with a slew of young talent that still look forward to coming to the park everyday. The Jays meanwhile, look completely disinterested. They scored one run in the final two games of its series with the Rays over the weekend and they return home from a 10-day trip tonight. October can’t come soon enough for the Blue Jays. David Purcey is a guy that really has good stuff but he throws a ton of pitches and walks too many. His record at the Rogers Center is shaky at best, as it would appear that he’s feeling a lot more pressure throwing at home. Chris Tillman is coming off three games against Tampa, Texas and the Yanks and he’ll be taking a huge step down in class after facing that aforementioned trio. He threw a gem in his last start against the Rays and picked up a win in the process. The O’s definitely have a good chance to get off the mattress against this very ripe host. Play: Baltimore +1.20 (Risking 2 units).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR MONDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


ST. LOUIS (PINEIRO) +145 (1)

Houston (Rodriguez)


ATLANTA (LOWE) -162 (2)

Mets (Misch)


Yankees (Pettitte)

ANGELS (SAUNDERS) -110 (3)


Run Totals

Boston / Kansas City OVER 9 ½

Atlanta / Mets OVER 8 ½

St. Louis / Houston UNDER 8 ½

Yankees / Angels UNDER 9 ½